Publications
The following are some publications using the ST-Sim Package within SyncroSim.
ST-Sim Methods
Please cite this paper when using ST-Sim:
Daniel, C., Frid, L., Sleeter, B., & Fortin, M. J. 2016. State-and-transition simulation models: a framework for forecasting landscape change. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. doi:10.1111/2041-210X.12597
Please also cite this paper when using the Stock-Flow Add-On Package for ST-Sim:
Daniel, C., Sleeter, B., Frid, L., & Fortin, M. J. 2018. Integrating continuous stocks and flows into state-and-transition simulation models of landscape change. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. doi:10.1111/2041-210X.12952
Publications Using ST-Sim
2022:
Badik, K. J., Wilson, C., Kampf, S. K., Saito, L., Provencher, L., Byer, S., & Hazelwood, M. 2022. A novel approach to estimating soil yield risk in fire prone ecosystems. Forest Ecology and Management. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119887
Diao, J., Liu, J., Zhu, Z., Wei, X., & Li, M. 2022. Active forest management accelerates carbon storage in plantation forests in Lishui, southern China. Forest Ecosystems. doi:10.1016/j.fecs.2022.100004
Jarnevich, C. S., Thomas, C. C., Young, N. E., Grissom, P., Backer, D., & Frid, L. 2022. Coupling process-based and empirical models to assess management options to meet conservation goals. Biological Conservation. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109379
Sleeter, B. M., Frid, L., Rayfield, B., Daniel, C., Zhu, Z., & Marvin, D. C. 2022. Operational assessment tool for forest carbon dynamics for the United States: a new spatially explicit approach linking the LUCAS and CBM-CFS3 models. Carbon Balance and Management. doi:10.1186/s13021-022-00201-1
Wilson, T. S., Matchett, E., Byrd, K. B., Conlisk, E., Reiter, M. E., Wallace, C., Flint, L. E., Flint, A. L., Joyce, B., & Moritsch, M. M. 2022. Climate and land change impacts on future managed wetland habitat: a case study from California's Central Valley. Landscape Ecology. doi:10.1007/s10980-021-01398-1
2021:
Blankenship, K., Swaty, R., Hall, K. R., Hagen, S., Pohl, K., Shlisky Hunt, A., Patton, J., Frid, L., & Smith, J. 2021. Vegetation dynamics models: a comprehensive set for natural resource assessment and planning in the United States. Ecosphere. doi:10.1002/ecs2.3484
Miller, B. W. & Frid, L. 2021. A new approach for representing agent-environment feedbacks: coupled agent-based and state-and-transition simulation models. Landscape Ecology. doi:10.1007/s10980-021-01282-y
Norris, A. R., Frid, L., Debyser, C., De Groot, K. L., Thomas, J., Lee, A., Dohms, K. M., Robinson, A., Easton, W., Martin, K., & Cockle, K. L. 2021. Forecasting the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on breeding habitat for a steeply declining aerial insectivorous songbird, the Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi). Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution. doi:10.3389/fevo.2021.635872
Provencher, L., Badik, K., Anderson, T., Tuhy, J., Fletcher, D., York, E., & Byer, S. 2021. Landscape conservation forecasting for data-poor at-risk species on western public lands, United States. Climate. doi:10.3390/cli9050079 cli9050079
Reeves, M., Ibanez, I., Blumenthal, D., Chen, G., Guo, Q., Jarnevich, C., Koch, J., Sapio, F., Schwartz, M. K., & Meentemeyer, R. K. 2021. Tools and technologies for quantifying spread and impacts of invasive species. Pages 243-265 Invasive Species in Forests and Rangelands of the United States. Springer, Cham.
Selmants, P. C., Sleeter, B. M., Liu, J., Wilson, T. S., Trauernicht, C., Grazier, A. G., & Asner, G. P. 2021. Ecosystem carbon balance in the Hawaiian Islands under different scenarios of future climate and land use change. Environmental Research Letters. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2347
Wilder, B. T., Jarnevich, C. S., Baldwin, E., Black, J. S., Franklin, K. A., Grissom, P., Hovanes, K. A., Olsson, A., Malusa, J., Kibria, A. S. M. G., Li, Y. M., Lien, A. M., Ponce, A., Rowe, J. A., Soto, J. R., Stahl, M. R., Young, N. E., & Betancourt, J. L. 2021. Grassification and fast-evolving fire connectivity and risk in the Sonoran Desert, United States. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution. doi:10.3389/fevo.2021.655561
2020:
Diao, J., Liu, J., Zhu, Z., Li, M., & Sleeter, B. M. 2020. Substantially greater carbon emissions estimated based on annual land-use transition data. Remote Sensing. doi:10.3390/rs12071126
Donato, D. C., Halofsky, J. S., & Reilly, M. J. 2020. Corralling a black swan: natural range of variation in a forest landscape driven by rare, extreme events. Ecological Applications. doi:10.1002/eap.2013
Jarnevich, C. S., Young, N. E., Thomas, C. C., Grissom, P., Backer, D., & Frid, L. 2020. Assessing ecological uncertainty and simulation model sensitivity to evaluate an invasive plant species' potential impacts to the landscape. Scientific Reports. doi:10.1038/s41598-020-75325-w
Shen, W., Mao, X., He, J., Dong, J., Huang, C., & Li, M. 2020. Understanding current and future fragmentation dynamics of urban forest cover in the Nanjing Laoshan region of Jiangsu, China. Remote Sensing. doi.org/10.3390/rs12010155
Soulard, C. E. & Rigge, M. 2020. Application of empirical land-cover changes to construct climate change scenarios in federally managed lands. Remote Sensing. doi:10.3390/rs12152360
Wilson, T. S., Van Schmidt, N. D., & Langridge, R. 2020. Land-use change and future water demand in California's central coast. Land. doi:10.3390/land9090322
2019:
Ford, P. L., Reeves, M. C., & Frid, L. 2019. A tool for projecting rangeland vegetation response to management and climate. Rangelands. doi:10.1016/j.rala.2018.10.010
Hart, S. J., Henkelman, J., McLoughlin, P. D., Nielsen, S. E., Truchon-Savard, A., & Johnstone, J. F. 2019. Examining forest resilience to changing fire frequency in a fire-prone region of boreal forest. Global Change Biology. doi:10.1111/gcb.14550
Haugo, R. D., Kellogg, B. S., Cansler, C. A., Kolden, C. A., Kemp, K. B., Robertson, J., Metlen, K. L., Vaillant, N. M., & Restaino, C. M. 2019. The missing fire: quantifying human exclusion of wildfire in Pacific Northwest forests, USA. Ecosphere. doi:10.1002/ecs2.2702
Jarnevich, C. S., Cullinane Thomas, C., Young, N. E., Backer, D., Cline, S., Frid, L., & Grissom, P. 2019. Developing an expert elicited simulation model to evaluate invasive species and fire management alternatives. Ecosphere. doi:10.1002/ecs2.2730
Sleeter, B. M., Marvin, D. C., Cameron, D. R., Selmants, P. C., Westerling, L., Kreitler, J., Daniel, C. J., Liu, J., & Wilson, T. S. 2019. Effects of 21st century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California. Global Change Biology. doi:10.1111/gcb.14677
2018:
Chaves-Fonnegra, A., Riegl, B., Zea, S., Lopez, J. V., Smith, T., Brandt, M., & Gilliam, D. S. 2018. Bleaching events regulate shifts from corals to excavating sponges in algae-dominated reefs. Global Change Biology. doi:10.1111/gcb.13962
Halofsky, J. S., Conklin, D. R., Donato, D. C., Halofsky, J. E., & Kim, J. B. 2018. Climate change, wildfire, and vegetation shifts in a high-inertia forest landscape: western Washington, U.S.A.. PLOS ONE. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0209490
Halofsky, J. S., Donato, D. C., Franklin, J. F., Halofsky, J. E., Peterson, D. L., & Harvey, B. J. 2018. The nature of the beast: examining climate adaptation options in forests with stand-replacing fire regimes. Ecosphere. doi:10.1002/ecs2.2140
Sleeter, B., Liu, J., Daniel, C., Rayfield, B., Sherba, J., Hawbaker, T. J., Zhu, Z., Selmants, P. C., & Loveland, T. R. 2018. Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States. Environmental Research Letters. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab540
2017:
Daniel, C. J. 2017. Incorporating uncertainty into projections of landscape change (PhD thesis). University of Toronto, Canada.
Daniel, C. J., Ter-Mikaelian, M. T., Wotton, B. M., Rayfield, B., & Fortin, M. J. 2017. Incorporating uncertainty into forest management planning: timber harvest, wildfire and climate change in the boreal forest. Forest Ecology and Management. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2017.06.039
Miller, B. W., Symstad, A. J., Frid, L., Fisichelli, N. A., & Schuurman, G. W. 2017. Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota. Ecosphere. doi:10.1002/ecs2.2020
Sleeter, B. M., Wilson, T. S., Sharygin, E., & Sherba, J. 2017. Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends. Earth's Future. doi:10.1002/2017EF000560
Sleeter, B. M., Wood, N. J., Soulard, C. E., & Wilson, T. S. 2017. Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: a case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.02.015
Sleeter, R., Sleeter, B. M., Williams, B., Hogan, D., Hawbaker, T., & Zhu, Z. 2017. A carbon balance model for the Great Dismal Swamp ecosystem. Carbon Balance and Management. doi:10.1186/s13021-017-0070-4
Wilson, T. S., Sleeter, B. M., & Cameron, D. R. 2017. Mediterranean California's water use future under scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change. PLOS One. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0187181
2016:
Costanza, J. K., Abt, R. C., McKerrow, A. J., & Collazo, J. A. 2016. Bioenergy production and forest landscape change in the southeastern United States. GCB Bioenergy. doi:10.1111/gcbb.12386
Tarr, N. M., Rubino, M. J., Costanza, J. K., McKerrow, A. J., Collazo, J. A., & Abt, R. C. 2016. Projected gains and losses of wildlife habitat from bioenergy-induced landscape change. GCB Bioenergy. doi:10.1111/gcbb.12383
Wilson, T. S., Sleeter, B. M., & Cameron, D. R. 2016. Future land-use related water demand in California. Environmental Research Letters. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054018
2015:
Blankenship, K., Frid, L., & Smith, J. L. 2015. A state-and-transition simulation modeling approach for estimating the historical range of variability. AIMS Environmental Science. doi:10.3934/environsci.2015.2.253
Costanza, J. K., Abt, C. R., McKerrow, A. J., & Collazo, J. A. 2015. Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios AIMS Environmental Science. doi:10.3934/environsci.2015.2.180
Costanza, J. K., Terando, A. J., McKerrow, A. J., & Collazo, J. A. 2015. Modeling climate change, urbanization, and fire effects on Pinus palustris ecosystems of the southeastern U.S.. Journal of Environmental Management. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.12.032
Miller, B. W., Frid, L., Chang, T., Piekielek, N., Hansen, A. J., & Morisette, J. T. 2015. Combining state-and-transition simulations and species distribution models to anticipate the effects of climate change. AIMS Environmental Science. doi:10.3934/environsci.2015.2.400
O'Donnell, M. S. 2015. Encapsulating model complexity and landscape-scale analyses of state-and-transition simulation models: an application of ecoinformatics and juniper encroachment in sagebrush steppe ecosystems. AIMS Environmental Science. doi:10.3934/environsci.2015.3.464
Sherba, J. T., Sleeter, B. M., Davis, A. W., & Parker, O. 2015. Downscaling global land-use/land-cover projections for use in region-level state-and-transition simulation modeling. AIMS Environmental Science. doi:10.3934/environsci.2015.3.623
Sleeter, B. M., Liu, J., Daniel, C., Frid, L., & Zhu, Z. 2015. An integrated approach to modeling changes in land use, land cover, and disturbance and their impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics: a case study in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California. AIMS Environmental Science. doi:10.3934/environsci.2015.3.577
Sleeter, R. R., Acevedo, W., Soulard, C. E., & Sleeter, B. M. 2015. Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model. AIMS Environmental Science. doi:10.3934/environsci.2015.3.668
Wilson, T., Costanza, J., Smith, J., & Morisette, J. 2015. Second state-and-transition simulation modeling conference. Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America. doi:10.1890/0012-9623-96.1.174
Wilson, T. S., Sleeter, B. M., Sherba, J., & Cameron, D. 2015. Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios. AIMS Environmental Science. doi:10.3934/environsci.2015.2.282
2014:
Wilson, T. S., Sleeter, B. M., Sleeter, R. R., & Soulard, C. E. 2014. Land-use threats and protected areas: a scenario-based, landscape level approach. Land. doi:10.3390/land3020362