Publications
The following are some publications using the ST-Sim Package within SyncroSim.
ST-Sim Methods
Please cite this paper when using ST-Sim:
Daniel, C., Frid, L., Sleeter, B., & Fortin, M. J. 2016. State-and-transition simulation models: a framework for forecasting landscape change. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. doi:10.1111/2041-210X.12597
Please also cite this paper when using the Stock-Flow Add-On Package for ST-Sim:
Daniel, C., Sleeter, B., Frid, L., & Fortin, M. J. 2018. Integrating continuous stocks and flows into state-and-transition simulation models of landscape change. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. doi:10.1111/2041-210X.12952
Publications Using ST-Sim
2021:
Blankenship, K., Swaty, R., Hall, K.R., Hagen, S., Pohl, K., Shlisky Hunt, A., Patton, J., Frid, L., and Smith, J. 2021. Vegetation dynamics models: a comprehensive set for natural resource assessment and planning in the United States. Ecosphere 12(4):e03484. 10.1002/ecs2.3484
Norris, A.R., Frid, L., Debyser, C., De Groot, K.L., Thomas, J., Lee, A., Dohms, K.M., Robinson, A., Easton, W., Martin, K. and Cockle, K.L. 2021. Forecasting the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on breeding habitat for a steeply declining aerial insectivorous songbird, the Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi). Front. Ecol. Evol. 9:635872. doi: 10.3389/fevo.2021.635872
Provencher, L., Badik, K., Anderson, T., Tuhy, J., Fletcher, D., York, E., Byer, S. 2021 Landscape conservation forecasting for data-poor at-risk species on western public lands, United States. Climate 9(5): 79. doi.org/10.3390/cli9050079 cli9050079
Reeves, M., I. Ibanez, D. Blumenthal, Chen, G., Guo, Q., Jarnevich, C., Koch, J., Sapio, F., Schwartz, M.K., Meentemeyer, R.K. 2021. Tools and technologies for quantifying spread and impacts of invasive species. Pages 243-265 Invasive Species in Forests and Rangelands of the United States. Springer, Cham.
2020:
Jarnevich, C.S., Young, N.E., Thomas, C.C., Grissom, P., Backer, D., and Frid, L. 2020. Assessing ecological uncertainty and simulation model sensitivity to evaluate an invasive plant species' potential impacts to the landscape. Scientific Reports. doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-75325-w
Wilson, T.S., Van Schmidt, N.D., Langridge, R. 2020. Land-use change and future water demand in California's central coast. Land, 9: 322. doi.org/10.3390/land9090322
Donato, D. C., Halofsky, J. S., and Reilly, M. J. 2020. Corralling a black swan: natural range of variation in a forest landscape driven by rare, extreme events. Ecological Applications, 30(1): e02013. 10.1002/eap.2013.
Diao, J., Liu, J., Zhu, Z., Li, M.; Sleeter, B.M. 2020. Substantially greater carbon emissions estimated based on annual land-use transition data. Remote Sensing, 12: 1126. doi.org/10.3390/rs12071126
Soulard, C.E., Rigge, M. 2020. Application of empirical land-cover changes to construct climate change scenarios in federally managed lands. Remote Sensing, 12: 2360. doi.org/10.3390/rs12152360
Shen, W., Mao, X., He, J., Dong, J., Huang, C., Li, M. 2020. Understanding current and future fragmentation dynamics of urban forest cover in the Nanjing Laoshan region of Jiangsu, China. Remote Sensing, 12: 155. doi.org/10.3390/rs12010155
2019:
Hart, S. J., Henkelman, J., McLoughlin, P. D., Nielsen, S. E., Truchon-Savard, A., and Johnstone, J. F. 2019. Examining forest resilience to changing fire frequency in a fire-prone region of boreal forest. Global Change Biology, 25: 869-884. doi:10.1111/gcb.14550
Haugo, R. D., Kellogg, B. S., Cansler, C. A., Kolden, C. A., Kemp, K. B., Robertson, J., Metlen, K. L., Vaillant, N. M., and Restaino, C. M. 2019. The missing fire: quantifying human exclusion of wildfire in Pacific Northwest forests, USA. Ecosphere, 10(4): e02702. doi:10.1002/ecs2.2702
Jarnevich, C. S., Cullinane Thomas, C., Young, N. E., Backer, D., Cline, S., Frid, L., and Grissom, P. 2019. Developing an expert elicited simulation model to evaluate invasive species and fire management alternatives. Ecosphere, 10(5): e02730. doi:10.1002/ecs2.2730
Sleeter, B. M., Marvin, D. C., Cameron, D. R., Selmants, P. C., Westerling, L., Kreitler, J., Daniel, C. J., Liu, J., Wilson, T. S. 2019. Effects of 21st century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California. Global Change Biology. doi:10.1111/gcb.14677
2018:
Ford, P. L., Reeves, M. C., & Frid, L. 2018. A tool for projecting rangeland vegetation response to management and climate. Rangelands. doi:10.1016/j.rala.2018.10.010
Halofsky, J.S., Conklin, D.R., Donato, D.C., Halofsky, J.E., & Kim, J.B. 2018. Climate change, wildfire, and vegetation shifts in a high-inertia forest landscape: western Washington, U.S.A.. PLOS ONE, 13(12): e0209490. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0209490
Halofsky, J.S., Donato, D.C., Franklin, J.F., Halofsky, J.E., Peterson, D.L., & Harvey, B.J. 2018. The nature of the beast: examining climate adaptation options in forests with stand-replacing fire regimes. Ecosphere, 9. doi:10.1002/ecs2.2140
Sleeter, B., Liu, J., Daniel, C., Rayfield, B., Sherba, J., Hawbaker, T.J., Zhu, Z., Selmants, P.C., & Loveland, T.R. 2018. Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States. Environmental Research Letters. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab540
2017:
Chaves-Fonnegra, A., Riegl, B., Zea, S., Lopez, J. V., Smith, T., Brandt, M., & Gilliam, D. S. 2017. Bleaching events regulate shifts from corals to excavating sponges in algae-dominated reefs. Global Change Biology, (September). doi:10.1111/gcb.13962
Miller, B. W., Symstad, A. J., Frid, L., Fisichelli, N. A., & Schuurman, G. W. 2017. Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota. Ecosphere, 8(12): e02020. doi:10.1002/ecs2.2020
Wilson, T.S., Sleeter, B.M., & Cameron, D.R.. 2017. Mediterranean California's water use future under scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change. PLOS One, 12(10). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0187181
Sleeter, B. M., Wilson, T. S., Sharygin, E. & Sherba, J. 2017. Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends. Earth's Future. doi:10.1002/2017EF000560
Daniel, C. J., Ter-Mikaelian, M. T., Wotton, B. M., Rayfield, B., & Fortin, M.J. 2017. Incorporating uncertainty into forest management planning: timber harvest, wildfire and climate change in the boreal forest. Forest Ecology and Management, 400: 542-554. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2017.06.039
Sleeter, R., Sleeter, B.M., Williams, B., Hogan, D., Hawbaker, T. & Zhu, Z. 2017. A carbon balance model for the Great Dismal Swamp ecosystem. Carbon Balance and Management, 12: 20 pp. doi:10.1186/s13021-017-0070-4
Sleeter, B. M., Wood, N. J., Soulard, C. E., & Wilson, T. S. 2017. Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: a case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.02.015
2016:
Costanza, J. K., Abt, R. C., McKerrow, A. J., & Collazo, J. A. 2016. Bioenergy production and forest landscape change in the southeastern United States. GCB Bioenergy. doi:10.1111/gcbb.12386
Tarr, N. M., Rubino, M. J., Costanza, J. K., McKerrow, A. J., Collazo, J. A., & Abt, R. C. 2016. Projected gains and losses of wildlife habitat from bioenergy-induced landscape change. GCB Bioenergy. doi:10.1111/gcbb.12383
Wilson, T. S., Sleeter, B. M., & Cameron, D. R. 2016. Future land-use related water demand in California. Environmental Research Letters, 11(5): 054018. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054018
2015:
Blankenship, K., Frid, L. & Smith, J. L. 2015. A state-and-transition simulation modeling approach for estimating the historical range of variability. AIMS Environmental Science, 2(2): 253-268. doi:10.3934/environsci.2015.2.253
Costanza, J. K., Abt, C. R., McKerrow, A. J. & Collazo, J. A. 2015. Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios. AIMS Environmental Science, 2(2): 180-202. doi:10.3934/environsci.2015.2.180
Costanza, J. K., Terando, A. J., McKerrow, A. J. & Collazo, J. A. 2015. Modeling climate change, urbanization, and fire effects on Pinus palustris ecosystems of the southeastern U.S. Journal of Environmental Management, 151: 186-199. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.12.032
Miller, B. W., Frid, L., Chang, T., Piekielek, N., Hansen, A. J. & Morisette, J. T. 2015. Combining state-and-transition simulations and species distribution models to anticipate the effects of climate change. AIMS Environmental Science, 2(2): 400-426. doi:10.3934/environsci.2015.2.400
O'Donnell, M. S. 2015. Encapsulating model complexity and landscape-scale analyses of state-and-transition simulation models: an application of ecoinformatics and juniper encroachment in sagebrush steppe ecosystems. AIMS Environmental Science, 2(3): 464-493. doi:10.3934/environsci.2015.3.464
Sherba, J. T., Sleeter, B. M., Davis, A. W. & Parker, O. 2015. Downscaling global land-use/land-cover projections for use in region-level state-and-transition simulation modeling. AIMS Environmental Science, 2(3): 623-647. doi:10.3934/environsci.2015.3.623
Sleeter, R. R., Acevedo, W., Soulard, C. E. & Sleeter, B. M. 2015. Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model. AIMS Environmental Science, 2(3): 668-693. doi:10.3934/environsci.2015.3.668
Sleeter, B. M., Liu, J., Daniel, C., Frid, L. & Zhu, Z. 2015. An integrated approach to modeling changes in land use, land cover, and disturbance and their impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics: a case study in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California. AIMS Environmental Science, 2(3): 464-493. doi:10.3934/environsci.2015.3.577
Wilson, T. S., Sleeter, B. M., Sherba, J. & Cameron, D. 2015. Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios. AIMS Environmental Science, 2(2): 282-301. doi:10.3934/environsci.2015.2.282
Wilson, T., Costanza, J., Smith, J. & Morisette, J. 2015. Second state-and-transition simulation modeling conference. Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America, 96: 174-175. doi:10.1890/0012-9623-96.1.174
2014:
Wilson, T. S., Sleeter, B. M., Sleeter, R. R. & Soulard, C. E. 2014. Land-use threats and protected areas: a scenario-based, landscape level approach. Land, 3: 362-389. doi:10.3390/land3020362